Monthly report - July 2025

  

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Oregon Gas Station Valuation Report: 

Prepared for: Team Saad Sultan Aziz
Date: July 2025

Gas stations are among the most resilient “boring businesses” in Oregon. They combine predictable fuel demand, convenience store upside, and real estate value — all of which qualify for SBA‑backed financing. This report analyzes 75 historical sales and current active listings to define fair value, typical margins, and red flags.

Key goal: Spot listings where price and cash flow align — and avoid overpaying in today’s competitive market.

Looking ahead - Learning from Shell's pivot: Shell isn’t “giving up” on fuel — they’re pivoting to EV + high-margin retail.

What the Numbers Tell Us

The number $2,706,747, is a weighted average  (inflation‑adjusted)

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1. What does the number represent?

• It’s the weighted average sale/asking price of 75 gas stations (Oregon market) in the dataset.

• It’s weighted heavier toward recent sales (so it reflects today’s market, not old cheap deals).

• It’s inflation‑adjusted to 2025 dollars, so older 2010‑2015 deals aren’t dragging it down unrealistically.

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2. Why is it significant?

• Baseline Benchmark: It gives you a ballpark price for “average” Oregon gas station with real estate.

• Valuation Filter: Any listing far above this needs premium justification (huge revenue, brand, location). Anything far below may be a bargain or have hidden issues.

• Negotiation Tool: When brokers pitch $5M+ deals, you can say:

  “Statewide comps average ~$2.7M adjusted — let’s talk about why this is priced nearly double.”

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3. How to apply it (practically)

• Step 1: Compare target deals vs. $2.7M average

  • Lane County ($1.95M) = below average → potentially undervalued.

  • Hubbard ($8.49M) = 3× average → must justify with revenue/cash flow.

• Step 2: Layer multiples

  • Cross‑check against price-to-revenue (0.3×–0.7×) and price-to-cash flow (4×–6× sold comps).

  • Example: If revenue is $3M, fair price range = $900K–$2.1M; if they’re asking $4M, red flag.

• Step 3: Refine with your target

  • Your target = 2–3× cash flow multiple.

  • Use $2.7M as the anchor, then adjust down if CF is weak, up if it’s turnkey/prime location.

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4. Key takeaway

The $2.7M Average = Market Compass, Not Target Price

• It’s not telling you “buy at $2.7M.”

• It’s telling you where the center of the market sits so you can spot outliers:

  • If a station is way below $2.7M (like Lane County at $1.95M) → might be undervalued or have hidden issues.

  • If a station is way above $2.7M (like Hubbard at $8.49M) → it must justify price with big cash flow, traffic, or location.

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Use It to Stay Disciplined

• Don’t get caught up in flashy marketing (“high volume,” “brand new”) — compare to actual comps.

• Focus on cash flow multiples (2–3× SDE target) rather than raw asking price.

• Real estate inflates active listings — check if the operating business alone justifies cost.

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Market Reality

• Sold deals (historical) show 4–6× cash flow is normal with real estate.

• Rural stations often trade 2–3× SDE — these are your sweet spot.

• Active listings are overpriced (7–10× CF) — negotiate hard or walk.

• Fuel margins are slim (~0.9¢/gal), so profit comes from the store, food, or add-ons (coffee, car wash, EV chargers).

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Macro Trends

• Fuel supply is stable, but policy risks (tax hikes, EV mandates) are coming.

• EV adoption = slow in rural, fast in metro → rural properties stay viable longer.

• Future-proof: buy sites where you can add food/charging/retail.

What the Data Means for You

• Fuel and energy volatility remains modest in 2025; stable oil supply and moderate OPEC+ production weigh on prices.

• Policy pressures: Proposed Oregon fuel tax hike (~15 ¢) under HB 2025 may affect soft-margin margins in coming years.

• Renewable fuel mandates growing gradually; conventional gasoline volumes slightly down.

• Electric grid strain rising: EV adoption burdens utility infrastructure, making convenience + charging layout valuable real estate.

Pricing & Multiples

• Price‑to‑Revenue Range (sold comps): 0.3×–0.7×

• Price‑to‑Cash Flow Range (sold comps): 4×–6× (target ≤3× SDE for owner‑op)

• Active Listing Premium: 7×–10× CF (real estate bundled)

• Your Filter: $1.5M–$2.5M price, ≥$200K SDE, ≤2.5× SDE

• Sold deals cluster at 4–6× cash flow (SDE/EBITDA), but:

  • Smaller, rural stations sometimes trade at 2–3× SDE (ideal for you).

  • High‑traffic/urban stations with real estate trend toward 5–7× CF.

• Active listings are priced richer: ~7–10× cash flow (asking premiums).

• Revenue multiples: Most sit around 0.3–0.7× revenue — Lane County deal is closer to the low end (fair).

Real Estate Drives Price

• Nearly all higher‑priced listings include property, which inflates multiples but improves SBA eligibility (you borrow against land + business).

• Stations without property tend to sell at half the multiple but require negotiating leases (often with escalators or fuel supplier conditions).

Cash Flow Quality

• Only ~20% of active listings disclose cash flow — a major diligence gap.

• Where disclosed, margins average 8–12% of revenue (fuel margins ~0.9¢/gal; store margins ~35%).

Historical Trends

• Pre‑2020: Many sales <$300K (older sites, low volumes).

• Post‑2021: Prices climbed 2–3× due to real estate appreciation + post‑COVID demand normalization.

• Recent: High‑end portfolio listings ($8M–$10M) emerging; rare pre‑COVID.

Trend: Post‑2021 prices doubled/tripled vs pre‑2020 due to real estate appreciation + post‑COVID recovery.

Real market behavior vs inflated asks

The sold listings give us a much clearer picture of real market behavior vs the inflated asks on active listings. Here’s what the data shows:

Sold Listings (with cash flow disclosed)

• About 30% of the 75 deals disclose cash flow (higher than actives).

• Those with cash flow reported average:

  • Price-to-Cash Flow Multiple: ~4.5× – 6×

  • Price-to-Revenue Multiple: ~0.3× – 0.5×

  • Cash Flow Margin (CF ÷ Revenue): ~8–12%

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Breakdown by Deal Size

• Small Stations (<$1M):

  • Sold as low as 2–3× cash flow (e.g., $230K CF → $600K price).

  • Often rural or highway exit properties.

• Mid‑Range Stations ($1M–$3M):

  • Typically 4–5× cash flow, 0.3–0.5× revenue multiples.

• High‑Volume / Truck Stops ($3M+):

  • Trend higher at 5–6× CF, justified by scale and property value.

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Historical vs Active Comparison

• Sold deals: More realistic — owners ultimately accept 4–6× CF.

• Active listings: Often ask 7–10× CF (premium pricing pre‑negotiation).

• This gap = negotiation leverage: Expect ~20–30% discounts vs list.

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Example (Truck Stop 2023)

• Sold for $4.2M on $707K CF → ~5.9× multiple (realistic upper bound).

• Compare to Lane County active deal ($1.95M on $200K CF) → 2.3× multiple (ideal target).

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Conclusion:
Historical sales prove fair value sits at ~4–6× CF. Anything below 3× = buy signal. Anything above 7× = likely overpriced unless unique (prime corner, massive volume).

Risk Signals

• High asking prices without CF data (e.g., $5M–$9M listings).

• Transition to EV: Still 10+ years runway, but diversification (store/food) is key.

• Environmental: Must confirm Phase I clean reports + tank age (15+ years = risk).

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1. Why This Report Matters

Gas stations remain one of the most resilient, cash‑flowing “boring businesses” in Oregon. With predictable demand (fuel + convenience store) and real estate upside, they are popular targets for SBA‑backed acquisitions.

This report reviews 75 historical sales and current active listings to identify fair value ranges, typical margins, and red flags. Our goal: spot opportunities where price and cash flow align—and avoid overpaying in a competitive market.

July was a busy month for gas station listings in Oregon and Southern Washington. Prices ranged from $1.95M to nearly $10M, with cash flows (profits) from $200K up to $1.2M. This report breaks down:

• Current market averages

• Key deals worth pursuing

• Historical pricing trends

• Action steps for screening opportunities fast

Ideal Acquisition Profile (for You)

Based on your capital strategy (SBA leverage + modest down payment):

Price Range: $1.5M–$2.5M
Cash Flow: $200K–$300K (SDE) minimum
Multiple: ≤ 2.5× SDE (with real estate)
Revenue: $2M–$3M typical; fuel + store mix (store ≥30%)
Upside: Ability to add food program, car wash, or EV chargers
Location: Rural/suburban with highway traffic (avoid dense EV metro cores)
Condition: Phase I clean; tanks double-wall compliant

Lane County Example (Closest to Ideal)

• Price: $1.95M

• Revenue: $2.3M

• Cash Flow: $200K (≈2.34× SDE multiple)

• Real Estate: Included (adds collateral value)

• Upside: Convert vacant 1,000 sq ft building into food/QSR

Why it fits: Meets target multiple, manageable size, SBA-friendly. Immediate 20–25% DSCR buffer post-debt.

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2. Macro Snapshot

📈 Macro & Market Trends

• Gas prices in Oregon have climbed from ~$3.45/gal in January to ~$4.02/gal by early July. Retail prices remain 20 ¢–30 ¢ higher than national levels. 

• Fuel markets are stable to slightly declining: Portland rack averages dipped $0.02–$0.07/gal recently, and AAA expects further easing unless new geopolitical disruptions arise. 

• Demand remains strong: U.S. crude output projected at 13.4M b/d in 2025 and growth to 2026, pushing fuel volumes; Oregon retail gasoline sales up ~2.1% year-over-year

• Alternative fuels bite into diesel volumes, while electric vehicle electricity use is rising ~33% year-over-year—but gas demand remains resilient until ~2030.

• Transition pressures: Shell plans to shutter ~1,000 U.S. stations by 2025 to focus on EV charging; station operators must diversify amenities to stay competitive.
  [Read more]

Interest Rates & Lending Environment

• SBA 7(a) rates: ~10–10.25% (Prime 8.5% + 1.5–2%)

• Banks remain cautious: 10–20% down payment common

• Leverage is viable but underwriting is strict (DSCR > 1.25 required)

Fuel Market

• Retail margins stable at $0.35–$0.45/gal statewide

• Premium markets (tourist corridors) hitting $0.80–$0.90/gal

• EV adoption creeping up (esp. Portland metro), but rural markets remain steady

M&A Trends

• Real estate–included deals fetching premium multiples (5–6× cash flow)

• Standalone operations (leasehold) trading 2–3× SDE

• Large multi-site packages (e.g., Umatilla two-station deal) now aimed at institutional buyers or high-net-worth operators

Current Market Benchmarks

• Weighted Avg Price (active + sold): $2.7M

• Active Listings Avg Price: $5.48M

• Target Multiples (Our Filter):
• SDE: 2–3.5× (owner-op)
• EBITDA: 4–6× (absentee)
• Revenue: 0.3–0.5×

Oregon Gas Station Benchmarks

Weighted Average Asking/Sale Price: $2.7M
(based on sold and active listings, inflation‑adjusted)

• Average Asking Price (Active Listings): $5.48M

• Highest Current Listing: $8.49M (Portland suburbs – $12.5M revenue, $1.2M cash flow)

• Lowest Viable Entry Point: $1.95M (Lane County – $2.3M revenue, $200K cash flow)

Typical Multiples

• Price-to-Revenue (Sold): 0.3× to 0.7×

• Price-to-Cash Flow (Sold): 4× to 6×

• Target Multiple (Our Strategy): 2.3× SDE (for owner‑operator style acquisitions)

• Observed market multiple (active deals): 7–10× cash flow (inflated due to real estate)

Interpretation: Most sales trade at higher multiples than our 2.3× benchmark, mainly because real estate is bundled. This creates negotiating leverage if we can isolate cash flow from property value.

Implication: Most deals require separating operating cash flow from property value to see true viability.

Asking prices average 1× to 2× revenue (fair for real estate-included gas stations)

• Recent sold deals average 5× cash flow (higher than small-business “boring business” target of 2–3× SDE)

• Lane County deal ($1.95M) aligns closest to 2.34× SDE target — strong first-time buyer candidate

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3. Key Recent Sales (Oregon)

Revenue-to-Price Trends:
Most active listings price between 1× and 2× revenue, with outliers (Portland suburb deal ~0.68× revenue due to very high sales volume).

Cash Flow Multiples:
Recent sold deals average 5–6× cash flow (raw) — BUT most small operators target 2–3× SDE (your acquisition strategy). This means many asking prices are above “boring business” multiples, creating negotiation opportunity.

Key Observations:

1. Real estate inclusion drives higher asking prices but improves SBA loan viability.

2. Lane County deal ($1.95M) fits your “2.34× SDE” target best.

3. High-price hubs (Umatilla, Hubbard) have extreme revenue scale — could be portfolio anchors but require investors.

4. Historical sales show smaller urban properties traded for $150K–$900K years ago — big appreciation now.

Takeaway:

• Premium properties (with café or large store) fetch 5–6× cash flow.

• Smaller rural stations occasionally sell at 2–3× (rare, but worth targeting).

• Real estate value strongly influences sale price.

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4. Active Listings Snapshot (Mid‑2025)

Fair Market Score (1–7 scale) and NDA Stage columns into your spreadsheet for the 8 active listings.

Scoring logic used:

• Price: Lower price = higher score (3 = <$3M, 2 = <$6M, 1 = higher).

• Cash Flow: Higher cash flow = higher score (3 = >$500K, 2 = >$200K, 1 = >0).

• Revenue Info Present: +1 point if disclosed (reduces diligence risk).

Scoring Inputs:

• Weighted vs historical 76 comps (price-to-revenue, price-to-SDE)

• Real estate inclusion (SBA‑friendly = score boost)

• Cash flow disclosure (penalty for speculative/undisclosed)

• Location traffic & growth indicators (rural vs metro)

• Value‑add potential (extra points for expansion opportunities)

4.1. Gas Station / Grocery / Property – Lane County, OR (Saad's Fair Market Score: 88/100)

• Asking Price: $1,950,000

• Gross Revenue: $2,313,000

• Cash Flow: $200,000

• Highlights:

  • First fueling facility motorists see when entering the city.

  • Large lot includes a vacant 1,000 sq ft building (ideal for a new convenience store).

  • Strong fuel margins (~$0.90 per gallon).

  • Real estate included.

Link: View Listing

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4.2. Shell Station near Bend, OR – Jefferson County (Saad's Fair Market Score: 82/100)

• Asking Price: $4,200,000

• Gross Revenue: $2,690,562 (fuel + café + store)

• Cash Flow: Not disclosed (fuel + café margins suggest high profitability)

• Price per SDE/NOI: Not disclosed — must be derived from fuel/café margins (94¢/gal, 63% café).

• Highlights:

• Located on busy US Highway 97 just north of Bend.

• Real Estate: 2.21 acres, two commercial lots, 2,505 SF main building + 7,124 SF rental/tire shop + 4BR apartment.

• Traffic Count: ~17,385 VPD (US-97).

• 2.21 acres, room for expansion (car wash, espresso stand, RV parking).

• Fuel margins ~94¢ per gallon, café margins ~63%.

• Expansion: Car wash, espresso pad, fast food, or RV parking possible on second parcel.

• Fuel Supply: GP Energy contract to 8/2032; $310K amortization loan assumed by buyer.

Key Strengths

1. Diverse Profit Centers

   • Fuel: 38,430 gallons/month at 94¢ gross margin (extremely strong vs. national avg. 20–30¢).

   • Café: $58,625/month at 63% margin (~$37K gross monthly).

   • C-store: $34,795/month at 28% margin.

   • Rental income from tire shop + 4BR apartment (est. ~$4–5K/month combined potential).

2. Expansion-Ready Property

   • 2.21 acres with spare 0.85-acre lot; can add car wash/espresso stand — low incremental capex, high return.

3. Location / Traffic

   • Only truck stop heading north for 96 miles to I‑84; captures commuter + tourism + long-haul traffic.

   • Proximity to Bend (fast-growing Central Oregon metro).

4. High Margins

   • Exceptional fuel and café margins create cushion vs. typical thin C-store spreads.

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Risks / Red Flags

• Price to Cash Flow Unknown: Without clear SDE/NOI, valuation is speculative. Premium pricing may not pencil with SBA debt until margins are verified.

• Supply Contract Obligation: GP Energy contract limits fuel sourcing flexibility until 2032; amortization loan ($310K) adds to acquisition burden.

• Operational Complexity: Café + fuel + rental = more moving parts than a typical C-store; owner-operator or strong GM needed.

• Rural Market Volatility: Population base is small (10K in 3‑mi radius), though traffic mitigates this.

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Price / DSCR Considerations

• At $4.2M asking, assume 10% down SBA 7a: $3.78M financed at 9.5% = ~$475K annual debt service.

• Back-of-napkin:

  • Fuel gross: 38,430 gal × $0.94 = ~$36K/mo ($432K/yr).

  • Café gross: $58.6K/mo × 63% margin = ~$37K/mo ($444K/yr).

  • C‑store gross: $34.8K/mo × 28% margin = ~$9.7K/mo ($116K/yr).

  • Rental income: ~$50–60K/yr (est.).

  • Est. Gross Margin ≈ $1M/year before payroll, overhead, debt service.

• If expenses run 40–50%, SDE could be ~$450–500K → DSCR ~1.0–1.2× (borderline, but better than Steilacoom 76).

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Negotiation Angle

• Validate margins with 3-year P&Ls (fuel + café + rental separately).

• Push for price closer to $3.7M–$3.9M unless proven SDE exceeds ~$500K.

• Leverage expansion potential (espresso stand, car wash) as upside post-acquisition, not in current valuation.

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Fair Market Score

82/100 — High-margin multi-income property with expansion upside; valuation hinges on verifying SDE and tightening expenses. More attractive than Steilacoom 76 due to lower price, superior margins, and spare land, but still premium vs. rural comps.

Comparison to 76 Steilacoom: View Link

Link: View Listing

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4.3. Portland Suburbs Gas Station (Hubbard, OR) (Saad's Fair Market Score: 50/100)

• Asking Price: $8,499,000

• Gross Revenue: $12,512,022

• Cash Flow (EBITDA): $1,200,000

• Highlights:

  • High‑volume station with major brand affiliation.

  • Includes real estate and robust convenience sales.

  • Absentee‑owner potential with strong systems in place.

Link: View Listing

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4.4. Gas Station / Grocery / Property – Douglas County, OR (Saad's Fair Market Score: 72/100)

• Asking Price: $5,500,000

• Gross Revenue: Not disclosed

• Cash Flow: $587,881

• Highlights:

  • Branded fuel plus grocery/convenience store.

  • Real estate included.

  • Attractive cash flow for SBA loan coverage.

Link: View Listing

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4.5. Brand new - Gas Station for Sale – Umatilla County, OR (Saad's Fair Market Score: 66/100)

• Asking Price: $5,500,000

• Gross Revenue / Cash Flow: Not disclosed (brand new location, early ramp‑up phase)

• Highlights:

  • Brand new facility with modern pumps and infrastructure.

  • Currently doing $225,000/month inside sales and 160,000 gallons/month fuel with high margins.

  • Highway exit location — strong visibility and heavy commuter/long‑haul traffic.

  • Real estate included (owned property).

  • Potential upside as business matures and traffic patterns stabilize.

  • Ideal for SBA financing if historicals and projections are documented.

Link: View Listing

Broker Contact: AJ Sandhu – UBB (916‑995‑0783)

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4.6. Branded Gas Station – Umatilla County, OR (Saad's Fair Market Score: 55/100)

• Asking Price: $4,500,000

• Gross Revenue / Cash Flow: Not disclosed

• Highlights:

  • Branded fuel station with potential upside from property upgrades.

  • Located in fast‑growing eastern Oregon corridor.

  • Details pending NDA — good off‑market comparison opportunity.

Link: View Listing

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4.7. High‑Volume Package of Two Gas Stations – Umatilla County, OR (Saad's Fair Market Score: 51/100)

• Asking Price: $9,950,000

• Gross Revenue / Cash Flow: Not disclosed

• Highlights:

  • Two‑station package deal, ideal for scaling.

  • Includes real estate and established fuel contracts.

  • Significant regional presence with potential for centralized management.

Link: View Listing

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4.8. Branded Gas Station with Convenience Store – Clackamas County, OR (Saad's Fair Market Score: 78/100)

• Asking Price: $3,800,000

• Gross Revenue / Cash Flow: Not disclosed

• Highlights:

  • Includes convenience store and branded fuel.

  • Located in Portland metro area with high commuter traffic.

  • Opportunity to modernize and improve in‑store margins.

Link: View Listing

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Quick Takeaways

• Price Range: $1.95M – $9.95M

• Best Value (SDE Multiple): Lane County gas station at $1.95M with $200K cash flow.

• Highest Scale: Two‑station Umatilla package at $9.95M (regional footprint).

• Real Estate Included: All eight listings include property — important for SBA financing.

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5. Viability & Strategy

• Target Zone: $500K–$2M price range; 0.3×–0.5× revenue multiple; cash flow ≥ $200K

SBA Loan Example (Lane County Station):

Loan (90%): $1.755M
Down Payment (10%): $195K
Annual Cash Flow: ~$200K → Post-debt coverage must be verified (goal: DSCR ≥ 1.25)

Key Insight: Deals under $2M with $200K+ cash flow are most compatible with our “no personal capital” acquisition strategy.

• Focus: Lane County property aligns best with SBA financing sweet spot; Bend property viable only if cash flow exceeds $700K+ (to justify price).

• Due Diligence Next Steps:

  1. Request 3 years of P&Ls, tax returns, and tank compliance reports.

  2. Confirm “cash flow” = owner take‑home after expenses.

  3. Model payback period (aim ≤ 4 years post‑debt service).

  4. Evaluate add‑on revenue: convert vacant store (Lane) or expand café/rental (Bend).

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6. Market Outlook & Risks

Sold Deals

Recent sales show how much pricing has risen:

• Florence, OR (2023): Sold for $1.1M on $3.3M revenue

• Polk County, OR (2023): Sold for $3.1M on $4.7M revenue ($515K cash flow)

• Truck Stop (2023): Sold for $4.2M on $3.67M revenue ($707K cash flow)

Older sales (2010–2015) traded as low as $100K–$500K — a reminder that gas stations are appreciating assets, especially with real estate included.

Risks

• EV Transition: Gas demand stable 10–15 years; hybrid/EV growth favors stations with food + amenities, retail, car wash, or rental income..

• Fuel Margins: High-margin (80–90 cents/gal) stations outperform; low margins require store/café revenue to balance.

• Real Estate Hedge: Property ownership adds value regardless of fuel trends.

• Environmental Liabilities: Confirm tank compliance (Phase I/II reports) before offering.

• Labor & Payroll: Stations open 5AM–10PM often need 2+ staff per shift → confirm true payroll vs reported.

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7. Recommendation

Short‑term action: Pursue Lane County for immediate SBA‑fundable acquisition; continue diligence on Bend (request detailed café/rental P&L).

• Focus on Lane County: Best fit for SBA leverage and immediate upside via store conversion.
• Investigate Bend Station: Confirm cash flow and café/rental performance; potential “big upside” if numbers align.
• Pass on $5M+ deals: Current portfolio strategy favors $500K–$2M range for scalable roll-up.

Long‑term strategy: Build pipeline of similar “boring businesses” (gas + convenience + property) targeting 2–3× cash flow multiples and 0.3–0.5× revenue multiples, scaling portfolio over 3–5 years.

Set meeting with investors: Present findings, discuss capital stack (SBA + private equity).

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8. Final Word

Gas stations in Oregon are trading at mixed valuations—some reasonable (Lane County) and others priced for growth that must be verified (Bend). By applying a disciplined 2–3× cash flow filter and focusing on real estate-backed properties, we can secure boring but powerful cash-flowing assets for long-term wealth building.